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Evan Miyakawa

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My name is Evan Miyakawa, and I have my masters degree in statistics and am currently finishing up my doctorate in statistics at Baylor University.


Glossary:

  • OBPR: Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the offensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player's individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the offensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the defensive strength of the opponent's players on the floor. A higher rating is better.
  • DBPR: Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the defensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player's individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent's players on the floor. A higher rating is better.
  • BPR: Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a player's OBPR and DBPR. This rating is the ultimate measure of a player's overall value to his team when he is on the floor. A higher rating is better.
  • Change: Improvement in BPR over the last 30 days.
  • Off Poss: Number of meaningful offensive possessions played.
  • Def Poss: Number of meaningful defensive possessions played.
  • Box OBPR: Box Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating is an estimate of a player's offensive value, based only on his individual stats. This serves as a prior starting point when calculating OBPR.
  • Box DBPR: Box Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating is an estimate of a player's defensive value, based only on his individual stats. This serves as a prior starting point when calculating DBPR.
  • Box BPR: Box Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a player's Box OBPR and Box DBPR. This rating is an estimate of a player's overall value, based only on his individual stats.
  • Adj Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) with player on the court, adjusted for strength of opponent players faced. A higher value is better.
  • Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per 100 possessions) with player on the court, adjusted for strength of opponent players faced. A lower value is better.
  • Team Eff Margin: Difference between adjusted team offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency with player on the court. A higher value is better.
  • +/-: Number of points scored for the player's team with him on the court, minus the number of points scored by the opponent with him on the court.
  • Position: An estimate of a player's position based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated position of 1 corresponds to being a point guard, and a 5 corresponds to being a center. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers' Box Plus Minus 2.0.
  • Role: An estimate of a player's offensive role based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated role of 1 corresponds to being the “creator” in the offense, and a 5 corresponds to being the “receiver”. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers' Box Plus Minus 2.0.


Glossary:

  • OBPR: Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects a team's true offensive efficiency. A higher rating is better.
  • DBPR: Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects a team's true defensive efficiency. A higher rating is better.
  • BPR: Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a team's OBPR and DBPR. This rating is the ultimate measure of a team's overall strength. A higher rating is better.
  • Change: Improvement in BPR over the last 30 days.
  • True Tempo: A measure of a team's true game pace. This number reflects the estimated number of possessions played in a game against an average paced D1 opponent.
  • Off Rank: A team's rank in OBPR.
  • Def Rank: A team's rank in DBPR.
  • Tempo Rank: A team's rank in True Tempo
  • Roster Rank: A crude ranking of each team's strength of roster.
  • Resume Rank: A ranking of each team's in-season resume, treating all teams as equal at the start of the season. Think of it as a better version of the NET.
  • Home Rank: A team's rank in how much better they perform at home versus road games. A team ranked higher will play much better at home than on the road.

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Glossary:

  • OBPR: Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the offensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player's individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the offensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the defensive strength of the opponent's players on the floor. A higher rating is better.
  • DBPR: Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the defensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player's individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent's players on the floor. A higher rating is better.
  • BPR: Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a player's OBPR and DBPR. This rating is the ultimate measure of a player's overall value to his team when he is on the floor. A higher rating is better.
  • Change: Improvement in BPR over the last 30 days.
  • Off Poss: Number of meaningful offensive possessions played.
  • Def Poss: Number of meaningful defensive possessions played.
  • Box OBPR: Box Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating is an estimate of a player's offensive value, based only on his individual stats. This serves as a prior starting point when calculating OBPR.
  • Box DBPR: Box Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating is an estimate of a player's defensive value, based only on his individual stats. This serves as a prior starting point when calculating DBPR.
  • Box BPR: Box Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a player's Box OBPR and Box DBPR. This rating is an estimate of a player's overall value, based only on his individual stats.
  • Adj Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) with player on the court, adjusted for strength of opponent players faced. A higher value is better.
  • Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per 100 possessions) with player on the court, adjusted for strength of opponent players faced. A lower value is better.
  • Team Eff Margin: Difference between adjusted team offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency with player on the court. A higher value is better.
  • +/-: Number of points scored for the player's team with him on the court, minus the number of points scored by the opponent with him on the court.
  • Position: An estimate of a player's position based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated position of 1 corresponds to being a point guard, and a 5 corresponds to being a center. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers' Box Plus Minus 2.0.
  • Role: An estimate of a player's offensive role based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated role of 1 corresponds to being the “creator” in the offense, and a 5 corresponds to being the “receiver”. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers' Box Plus Minus 2.0.
  • Avg Opp BPR: The average BPR of the opponent's players on the floor at the same time as the player. A higher rating indicates that the player played against tougher opposition.
  • Position: An estimate of a player's position based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated position of 1 corresponds to being a point guard, and a 5 corresponds to being a center. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers' Box Plus Minus 2.0.
  • Role: An estimate of a player's offensive role based on his individual stats and team contributions. An estimated position of 1 corresponds to being the “creator” in the offense, and a 5 corresponds to being the “receiver”. This estimate comes from Daniel Myers' Box Plus Minus 2.0.
  • On-Off Offense Splits: How much better the team played offensively with that player on the floor, compared to without them, measured in points per 100 possessions. A positive number indicates that the team was better offensively with the player on the floor.
  • On-Off Defense Splits: How much better the team played defensively with that player on the floor, compared to without them, measured in points per 100 possessions. A positive number indicates that the team was better defensively with the player on the floor.
  • On-Off Margin Splits: How much better the team played overall with that player on the floor, compared to without them, measured in points per 100 possessions. A positive number indicates that the team was better overall with the player on the floor.

Glossary:

  • Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points per possession scored) with those two player on the court at the same. A higher value is better.
  • Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points per possessions by opponent) with those two players on the court at the same time. A lower value is better.
  • Team Eff Margin: Difference between team offensive and defensive efficiency with those two players on the court at the same time. A higher value is better.
  • Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions with those two players on the court at the same time.
  • Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions with those two players on the court at the same time.
  • Above / Below Average: A measure of how much better the teammate played when he was on the court with the player, compared to the teammate's average play. This calculates the team's efficiency when these two players were on the court, minus the team's efficiency for all possessions when the teammate was on the court, regardless of who he played with.


Select Team and Year


Glossary:

  • Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possession) with those two player on the court at the same. A higher value is better.
  • Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per possessions) with those two players on the court at the same time. A lower value is better.
  • Team Eff Margin: Difference between team offensive and defensive efficiency with those two players on the court. A higher value is better.
  • Adj Team Eff Margin: Team Efficiency Margin, adjusted for the quality of opponent players faced by the pair of players.
  • Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions with those two players on the court at the same time.
  • Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions with those two players on the court at the same time.
  • Chemistry: A score that reflects how much better than average the team performs when these two players on the court together, compared to team averages when they are on the court individually.
  • Weighted Chemistry: This is a more reliable metric for teammate chemistry. The Chemistry score is multiplied by the number of possessions shared by the two players, to give more weight to player pairs who were on the floor more.
  • Avg Opp BPR: The average BPR of the opponent's players on the floor at the same time as the pair of teammates. A higher rating indicates that the players played against tougher opposition.

Glossary:

  • Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possession) with the lineup on the floor. A higher value is better.
  • Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per possessions) with the lineup on the floor. A lower value is better.
  • Team Eff Margin: Difference between team offensive and defensive efficiency with the lineup on the floor. A higher value is better.
  • Adj Team Eff Margin: Team Efficiency Margin, adjusted for the quality of opponent players faced by the lineup.
  • Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions with the lineup on the floor.
  • Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions with the lineup on the floor.
  • Avg Opp BPR: The average BPR of the opponent's players on the floor at the same time as the lineup. A higher rating indicates that the lineup played against tougher opposition.

Glossary:

  • Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possession) with the lineup on the floor. A higher value is better.
  • Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per possessions) with the lineup on the floor. A lower value is better.
  • Team Eff Margin: Difference between team offensive and defensive efficiency with the lineup on the floor. A higher value is better.
  • Adj Team Eff Margin: Team Efficiency Margin, adjusted for the quality of opponent players faced by the lineup.
  • Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions with the lineup on the floor.
  • Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions with the lineup on the floor.
  • Avg Opp BPR: The average BPR of the opponent's players on the floor at the same time as the lineup. A higher rating indicates that the lineup played against tougher opposition.

Glossary:

  • Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possession) with the lineup on the floor. A higher value is better.
  • Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per possessions) with the lineup on the floor. A lower value is better.
  • Team Eff Margin: Difference between team offensive and defensive efficiency with the lineup on the floor. A higher value is better.
  • Adj Team Eff Margin: Team Efficiency Margin, adjusted for the quality of opponent players faced by the lineup.
  • Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions with the lineup on the floor.
  • Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions with the lineup on the floor.
  • Avg Opp BPR: The average BPR of the opponent's players on the floor at the same time as the lineup. A higher rating indicates that the lineup played against tougher opposition.

Select Team and Year



Glossary:

  • Weighted Score: The team's score after filtering out possessions when the game was already decided. See “How It Works” for details
  • Weighted Opp Score: The opponent's score after filtering out possessions when the game was already decided.
  • Off Eff: The team's offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions), adjusted for home court advantage. A higher value is better.
  • Def Eff: The team's defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per 100 possessions), adjusted for home court advantage. A lower value is better.
  • Weighted Off Eff: The team's offensive efficiency after filtering out possessions when the game was already decided. This is a more accurate assessment of how the team played on offense than Off Eff.
  • Weighted Def Eff: The team's defensive efficiency after filtering out possessions when the game was already decided. This is a more accurate assessment of how the team played on defense than Def Eff.
  • Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions
  • Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions
  • Weighted Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions after filtering out possessions when the game was already decided.
  • Weighted Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions after filtering out possessions when the game was already decided.

Glossary:

  • Adj Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possession) with the lineup on the floor, adjusted for the strength of opposing players faced. A higher value is better.
  • Adj Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per possessions) with the lineup on the floor, adjusted for the strength of opposing players faced. A lower value is better.
  • Adj Team Eff Margin: Difference between adjusted team offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency with the lineup on the floor. A higher value is better.
  • Off Poss: Number of offensive possessions with the lineup on the floor.
  • Def Poss: Number of defensive possessions with the lineup on the floor.
  • Avg Opp BPR: The average BPR of the opponent's players on the floor at the same time as the lineup. A higher rating indicates that the lineup played against tougher opposition.
  • Team Off Eff: Team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possession) with the lineup on the floor, not adjusted for strength of opposition. A higher value is better.
  • Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per possessions) with the lineup on the floor, not adjusted for strength of opposition.. A lower value is better.
  • Team Eff Margin: Difference between team offensive and defensive efficiency with the lineup on the floor. A higher value is better.



Coming Soon.


Bracketology

Play-in teams are denoted in italics. Bracketology projections are computed using a deep learning neural network machine learning algorithm.

First Eight Out

Quick Overview

Welcome to EvanMiya College Basketball Analytics! The main objective of our work is to assess college basketball team and player strength. We have created an advanced statistical metric, Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR), which quantifies how effective a team or player is, using advanced box-score metrics, play-by-play data, and historical information. This metric is predictive in nature, which means that each rating is fine-tuned to predict performance in future games.

There are several pages of analysis (plus several more that appear when appropriate):

  • Team Ratings: We assess the strength of each team by calculating offensive and defensive ratings that reflect the team's offensive and defensive efficiency, while accounting for other factors, such as game pace and opponent strength.
  • Player Ratings: We quantify the value of each player to his team on both offense and defense. A player's ratings incorporate his individual efficiency statistics, along with his impact on the court for his team, which is assessed by looking at how successful his team was in every possession he played. These ratings account for the strength of all other players on the floor with that player in each of his possessions that he played.
  • Team Breakdown Tool: This tool provides a more detailed look into player and lineup metrics for each team.
  • Lineup Ratings: We rate all two, three, four, and five man lineups across all of Division 1 basketball, adjusted for the strength of opposing players faced by each lineup.

Now for some more detail into how we get these numbers:

Collecting Data

We have box score data available for every game played in the each college basketball season, along with play-by-play data, which includes substitutions. The possession by possession data is the main component used to drive our analysis.

Discarding unhelpful possessions

One key step that we take to gain the best predictions from our data is to only look at possessions in a game that “mattered”. Analyzing possessions when the game is already well out of hand isn't as valuable to us as possessions when the winner hasn't been decided yet. We use the in-game naive win probability (which assumes that teams are equally matched) in order to assess when a game was out of hand. Once a team has a win probability of at least 99%, we start down-weighting the possessions until the win probability is greater than 99.99%, at which point we discard all possessions entirely. In the rare situation where the losing team mounts a comeback and the win probability of the winning team sinks below 99%, we start giving each possession full weight again.

From a coach's perspective, every possession matters, even when your team has seemingly won or lost with minutes to spare. However, for predictive purposes, we can't properly assess the strength of a team when both teams aren't putting their normal lineups in or aren't playing as hard as they might if the outcome of the game were still in question.

Adjusting for the strength of opposition

At both a team and player level, our BPR metrics adjust for the strength of opposition for every possession played. For players, this includes an adjustment for the individual level of every single opposing player on the floor for a possession, along with the strength of teammates as well.

Tempo free statistics

All of our metrics adjust for the pace of play in a game by looking at efficiency on a per-possession basis.

Bayesian Performance Rating

We have created an advanced statistical metric, Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR), which quantifies how effective a player is, using advanced box-score metrics, play-by-play data, and historical information (for the basketball metric nerds, this is a highly technical version of an adjusted plus-minus). This metric is predictive in nature, which means that each rating is fine-tuned to predict performance in future games.

BPR quantifies the value of each player to his team on both offense and defense. A player's ratings incorporate his individual efficiency statistics, along with his impact on the court for his team, which is assessed by looking at how successful his team was in every possession he played. These ratings account for the strength of all other players on the floor with that player in each of his possessions that he played. Each player has an Offensive BPR and a Defensive BPR, which are added together to make the player's overall BPR. Very good players will have higher positive offensive and defensive ratings, with the average D1 player having an Offensive BPR and Defensive BPR of 0.

The BPR statistical model is trained on data going back to 2011, making it the most fine-tuned player evaluation metric in college basketball.

First Stage: Historical Stats

The first stage in forming a player's rating is in the form of a projection for the season, based on that player's statistics and metrics in previous seasons, along with other predictive information, such as recruiting ratings. Though the historical information does not influence BPR much by the end of a season, it is incredibly useful as it allows for Bayesian Performance Rating to be effective in assessing a player's impact, even when he hasn't played much (or at all) in the current season.

Second Stage: Individual Stats

The second stage in forming a player's rating is his Box Bayesian Performance Rating (Box BPR), which is an estimate of a player's impact on both ends of the court, using only his individual box score statistics. Box BPR, which is essentially our own version of a Box-Plus-Minus, can give us a good initial estimate of a player's statistical worth. Though we don't want to use Box BPR as the final representation of a player's effectiveness, we can still use the metric to help guide our final ratings by using it as a starting point.

Third Stage: Play-by-Play Impact

The third stage looks at every possession a player played, attempting to quantify his value to his team by looking at how efficiently his team performed on offense and defense for those plays. In addition, we also adjust for the strength of his teammates on the court with him, along with the strength of opposing players for each possession he was on the court. Essentially, our model finds the offensive and defensive rating for each player that can best explain the results from every possession that occurred from the season, for all players. The Box BPR is the starting point for a given player, but the rating will move up if he had more of an impact than his individual stats suggested, or vice versa. In some cases, the final BPR will be very close to the Box BPR, and in other cases they will be very different. Players who look really good on the stat sheet often evaluate well, but equally so, guys who control the game beyond what their stats convey will also be credited accordingly.

Team Ratings

The purpose behind the Bayesian Performance Rating at a team level is to provide each team a true offensive and a true defensive rating that best explains all of the real game results that we observed from the season, while also incorporating other predictive statistics, such as four factors and team historical information. These can be used, along with the BPR ratings of the opposing team, to estimate each team's expected offensive and defensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) in a game. These coefficients are designed to have 0 as the national average. Thus, very good teams will have higher positive offensive and defensive ratings. A team's overall BPR is just the sum of its OBPR and DBPR.

Our team ratings also incorporate team-specific home court advantages, and adjust for each team's pace of play, seen in the True Tempo metric, which is the adjusted pace of play for each team, based on if they were playing the D1 team with the average tempo.

How To Use BPR

The purpose of Bayesian Performance Rating is to identify the players who are having the biggest impact on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. BPR cannot provide everything that an eye-test can, but is a very helpful tool to either confirm what we thought was true of a player, or provide insight into trends we could have missed. By sorting a roster by BPR, the order will often be close to what you might have expected after watching the games. However, it is helpful to note which players evaluate much higher or lower than we might have expected, and to try to explain why. When I am trying to understand why a player has the rating that he does, I look at three stats, in order, which are all listed in the Team Breakdown Tool - Players page for each player.

  1. Box Plus Minus
    • Box Offensive BPR and Box Defensive BPR sum up a player's individual efficiency stats into one number that estimates effectiveness on that side of the court. Since this serves as the starting point for the final BPR calculation, it's the first place I look if I am trying to explain a particular player's evaluation. If a player's Box BPR is higher than expected, it might be because he was more efficient in some statistical category on a per possession basis than I realized.
  2. Adjusted Team Efficiency
    • The metrics in this category tell how many points per 100 possessions a team scored or conceded with that player on the floor. This does a calculation of efficiency on both sides of the court on a per possession basis, and adjusts for the strength of opposition players faced by that lineup. Often, a player who has a higher BPR on his team also has one of the higher Team Efficiency Margins, since this is a huge component to the calculation of the rating.
  3. Average Opponent BPR
    • This shows the average rating of the individual opponents faced by a player when he was on the floor. If a player has a higher Avg Opp BPR than other teammates, this indicates that he had to play against better players when he was on the floor, and his BPR will be adjusted higher accordingly.

Additionally, we have also included each player's estimated position and offensive role in the Team Table, which is based on individual stats and team contributions. An estimated position of 1 corresponds to being a point guard, and a 5 corresponds to being a center. An estimated offensive role of 1 corresponds to being the “creator” in the offense, and a 5 corresponds to being the “receiver”. These can be helpful see if a player's statistical contribution was similar to how they were envisioned to be helping the team. Bayesian Performance Rating is not biased based on position or offensive role.

About Me

My name is Evan Miyakawa, and I have my masters degree in statistics and am currently finishing up my doctorate in statistics at Baylor University. I graduated with my Bachelor's Degree in 2017 from Taylor University. You can find out more on my LinkedIn page.

My college basketball research has been featured in articles by Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, ESPN, the AP, and others.

Contact

Feel free to email me at evanmiyakawa@gmail.com with any questions or requests. I occasionally appear on radio shows and podcasts to talk about college basketball. I also work with college basketball coaches who want to utilize analytics for their teams.

You can also follow me on Twitter.

Blog

Access the EvanMiya blog here.

Radio and Podcast Appearances

SicEm365 Radio
Randy Kennedy Show - Sports Talk 995
Left Coast Sports
UpTempo
Country Roads Confidential - West Virginia 247Sports
Spartan Radio Network
Hoopin' With Hoops - Greg Peterson
Upper Left Sports
Locked On Zags
Our Daily Bears
Hope & Rauf Presented by Heat Check CBB
Zag Talk

Article Features

Sports Illustrated: Forde Minutes: What's Plaguing College Basketball's Powerhouses? - Pat Forde
Seattle Times: NCAA teams hit by COVID pauses take hope from antibodies - David Skretta
Sports Illustrated: Five Tips for Filling Out Your NCAA Tournament Bracket - Molly Geary
Spokesman Review: Numbers are adding up for No. 1 Gonzaga, but more data is needed - Jim Meehan
The Definitive Guide to Covid Pause Effect for CBB Teams - Evan Miyakawa
Spokesman Review: Rested or rusted? Analytics have helped Washington State gauge performance following COVID-19 layoffs - Theo Lawson